From scientific to doomsday, the five climate change narratives shaping discourse and decisions

ImpactAlpha, September 18 — The climate discourse by individuals and groups typically involves five narratives about the import and response to climate change. Some people are scientific, others skeptical. Some make moral arguments, others tout the opportunities. And, increasingly, many are warning of “doomsday” to spur urgency – or defeatism.

These narratives are “ideal types” that express themselves to varying degrees and in various combinations.  We believe that recognizing the existence of these types can be helpful in fostering dialogue between people and groups who are addressing the challenges and opportunities of climate change (engaging with climate change deniers might naturally be  harder).

For a constructive conversation to take place, each group needs to be aware of their own narrative and others’. And, importantly, they need to be able to understand the narrative. Scientific or policy climate jargon, (e.g., gigatons of CO₂) and policy (e.g., “aligned with the  1.5°C scenario of the Paris Agreement”) may not be accessible to all. We need to learn to talk to each other in a simple and accessible way that makes a constructive conversation possible.

The goal of such conversations must be to acknowledge the legitimacy in the other’s evidence-based arguments and look to find points of common ground. These will always exist, however small. It is important to leverage these as ‘hooks’ for a solutions-oriented dialogue to evolve.

The Scientific Narrative

The foundation of this narrative is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC is responsible for establishing the target of 1.5°C, which became the basis of the Paris Agreement, as the number beyond which average global temperatures will lead to irreversible effects on the planet.

The IPCC was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 “to provide policymakers with regular scientific assessments on the current state of knowledge about climate change.

In its most recent, and sixth, assessment report, the IPCC addresses the physical understanding of the climate system and climate change, the impacts of climate change, and the progress in limiting emissions and the range of mitigation options.

In addition to these reports there is a voluminous and growing scientific literature on the causes and effects of climate change and what must be done to mitigate and adapt to it. The Scientific Narrative is internally coherent, content-rich, complex, and based on a strong  scientific consensus. More than 97% of publishing climate scientists agree on the existence and cause of climate change.

The Skeptical Narrative

The elements of this narrative are a combination of: 1) simple climate change denial; 2) the assertion, from some prominent scientists, that while climate change may be happening it is a natural cycle of the Earth and not caused by humans; 3) the argument that the net zero transition is causing further poverty; and 4) the claim that the presumed economic effects of climate change are overstated due to flawed models.

In its extreme form, the Skeptical Narrative rejects that climate change is happening at all (for whatever reason) and is a hoax or conspiracy intended to harm the fossil fuel industry and undermine a country’s energy security.

This form of the narrative is most associated with those having right-wing political views or vested interests in fossil-fuel industries. It should be noted that many thoughtful conservatives subscribe instead to the Scientific Narrative, although they have different views on the best way to address climate challenges.

The Moral Narrative

The central thesis of the moral narrative is one of social justice, whereby climate change will exacerbate the dramatic inequalities that already exist within and across countries in terms of social status, gender, race, and age.

This narrative points out that developing economies will be hurt more than developed ones, that the wealthy will be able to adapt more easily than the poor, and that actions of past and the current generation are creating a world much less hospitable for future generations. An important part of this narrative is the concept of a “Just Transition” which emphasizes that solving the problem of climate change shouldn’t unduly burden those who can least afford it.

The Moral Narrative may include a religious dimension. For example, on Sunday, July 23, Pope Francis called on the world’s leaders to do more about climate change.

“It is an urgent challenge, it cannot be postponed, it concerns everyone,” the Pope said. “Let us protect our common home.”

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